Calabasas Real Estate Meets Autumn

Any Realtor in Calabasas who has been around a little while has been asked if now is a good time to sell. No matter what season it is, home sellers naturally want to know that they are listing their home at the best possible time that they can. No one wants to list their home for sale on Christmas Eve expecting the best turnout of the year. That said, with the exception of major holidays timing the market is a tricky thing and should be very carefully considered. My best advice is always that you cannot time markets and that you should strive for the best possible price in today’s market. I have seen far more people loose than win trying to guess what the market will be like next year. Small changes in the real estate market can mean big dollars lost if your timing is wrong. Case-Shiller just announced that home sale prices were up 5% year over year for the month of July. This follows many years of high single digit and double digit gains. With that in mind someone who asked their realtor at the end of June if it was too late in the season to sell would have missed out on a fantastic selling opportunity. Many people assume that the market is hotter in spring than fall and they also assume that the market will always be better next year. The major exception to this was the downturn of 2007-2012 where everyone assumed it would be worse next year. In both cases there are always big losers. Some buyers chasing the market in 2012 never caught it and missed out on homes they can now only dream of. Sellers need to take this speculation into consideration as well.

My best prediction for the future is that the local real estate market will move slowly and in small increments from this point forward. 3-5% gains or losses over the next year. Losses?! Yes, it is possible. As prices rise most people worry about the next market crash. I do not see a crash in the future since real estate loans are underwritten with much stronger fundamentals then they were in 2006. People have equity to lose and very few will walk away from that equity or lose their home over a small market slowdown. The biggest question mark on the horizon is the eventual inevitable rise of interest rates. Housing prices are directly tied to affordability and our all-time high prices are directly tied to all time low rates. There is very strong talk of further rate increases in 2016 and those small bumps may work against the future rising prices.

If mortgage rates for single family homes rise they have the ability to offset future price gains. The federal reserve is very careful and slow when it comes to making changes as it is their responsibility to prevent market crashes from happening. I don’t see crashes; I don’t see radical changes but I do see a possibility that homes will be priced lower in the spring than the fall. Even though the spring season is a great time to sell the best time this year may be sooner. Buyers too may wish to cash in on low 3% rates while they still exist. I don’t think anyone will miss the boat buying or selling between now and spring but if I were a seller or a buyer I would keep an eye on those rates and not assume that things will be better later. If you make the best deal possible in today’s market you will always win.

Any Realtor in Calabasas who has been around a little while has been asked if now is a good time to sell. No matter what season it is, home sellers naturally want to know that they are listing their home at the best possible time that they can. No one wants to list their home for sale on Christmas Eve expecting the best turnout of the year. That said, with the exception of major holidays timing the market is a tricky thing and should be very carefully considered. My best advice is always that you cannot time markets and that you should strive for the best possible price in today’s market. I have seen far more people loose than win trying to guess what the market will be like next year. Small changes in the real estate market can mean big dollars lost if your timing is wrong. Case-Shiller just announced that home sale prices were up 5% year over year for the month of July. This follows many years of high single digit and double digit gains. With that in mind someone who asked their realtor at the end of June if it was too late in the season to sell would have missed out on a fantastic selling opportunity. Many people assume that the market is hotter in spring than fall and they also assume that the market will always be better next year. The major exception to this was the downturn of 2007-2012 where everyone assumed it would be worse next year. In both cases there are always big losers. Some buyers chasing the market in 2012 never caught it and missed out on homes they can now only dream of. Sellers need to take this speculation into consideration as well.

My best prediction for the future is that the local real estate market will move slowly and in small increments from this point forward. 3-5% gains or losses over the next year. Losses?! Yes, it is possible. As prices rise most people worry about the next market crash. I do not see a crash in the future since real estate loans are underwritten with much stronger fundamentals then they were in 2006. People have equity to lose and very few will walk away from that equity or lose their home over a small market slowdown. The biggest question mark on the horizon is the eventual inevitable rise of interest rates. Housing prices are directly tied to affordability and our all-time high prices are directly tied to all time low rates. There is very strong talk of further rate increases in 2016 and those small bumps may work against the future rising prices.

If mortgage rates for single family homes rise they have the ability to offset future price gains. The federal reserve is very careful and slow when it comes to making changes as it is their responsibility to prevent market crashes from happening. I don’t see crashes; I don’t see radical changes but I do see a possibility that homes will be priced lower in the spring than the fall. Even though the spring season is a great time to sell the best time this year may be sooner. Buyers too may wish to cash in on low 3% rates while they still exist. I don’t think anyone will miss the boat buying or selling between now and spring but if I were a seller or a buyer I would keep an eye on those rates and not assume that things will be better later. If you make the best deal possible in today’s market you will always win.

If you would like to discuss this post further you can reach Aaron Scott at: here